IDP Snap Counts and Early Season Players to Watch
In our last chalk board session – An Introduction to IDP Drafting – we explored the different styles of IDP scoring and how to value positions and player roles within those positions when preparing for an IDP draft. Now that you’ve (hopefully) assembled your squad of QB crushing hooligans, and we have some games played, your focus needs to change. All the hype from the preseason has either shown truth, or fallen flat on its facemask, and with injuries always present there are always waiver wire or trade opportunities for you and players waiting to step up and prosper in starting roles. Whether it’s the young guys (rookies, 2nd or 3rd year players), or the vets who’ve become revived due to certain circumstances on their team.
In IDP leagues we have to look past each week’s scores and have a look at whether a player’s production is sustainable or not. Key example, Benson Mayowa, defensive end for the Oakland Raiders. He has 3.5 sacks (second in the league), 2 forced fumbles, and 2 tackles for losses on just a 25.4 percent snap count for the Raiders. If he doesn’t get an uptick in snaps, that sort of production is not sustainable through a full season, but on the other hand, if you see his workload increase, he could be primed to explode.
So not only are we looking for production, but also for usage, and how many snaps a player is on the field for. With injuries coming early and often for defensive players there are always opportunities on the IDP waiver wire no matter the format. Here’s a look at a few players and what we might be able to project from the early season data.
Do Not Give Up Yet
Von Miller, LB, Denver
Miller has put up 3 straight 0’s in non tackles formats, and not much better in tackle formats. The question is: Is it time to worry about Von Miller? The answer is yes, you should start to contemplate the idea of worrying. But DO NOT ABANDON SHIP. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb have both had issues putting up production this season, therefore I do not buy the fact Von Miller has regressed this much. Last season Aaron Donald put up similar low numbers in the first 2 games of the season, yet finished the year as the top IDP player. Denver will figure out its pass rush this season, and Miller has been a top IDP player for a long time. I would recommend trying to trade for the superstar linebacker when the going is still cheap, Miller is still sitting at a comfortable 96% of defensive snaps for the Broncos.
Aaron Donald, DE, Los Angeles
I know, I know, who would trade Aaron Donald? The answer should be not you. Donald is having a slow start to the season, but so is the whole Rams team. They are a Superbowl contender, they just need to get out of this early season production rut. Donald has at least provided some IDP scoring, and should be due for another monster season. We should expect to see Donald’s usage go up a bit as well, as he is sitting at just 82% of defensive snaps.
Jadeveon Clowney, LB, Seattle
You can chalk up most of Clowney’s ineffectiveness so far to being in a new defensive scheme and to learning the Seahawks’ system. He hasn’t put up Clowney-like numbers, and it’s making people start to wonder how much was he benefiting from starting opposite of JJ Watt. That’s a fair consideration, but Seattle has good pass rushing options to compliment Clowney, and a good linebacker core and secondary to give him enough time to reach the QB. I would recommend waiting on Clowney as he is a premier pass rusher on a good defense. His opportunities will come, likely when his snap count goes up from the 65% he is sitting at.
Likely Flashes in the Pan
Clay Matthews, LB, Los Angeles
Clay Matthews has only played a 3rd of the Rams snaps on defense so far this season, so his 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles on the year are amazing, but not likely sustainable at his current ussage rate. With Matthews’ age and durability in mind, it’s not likely he will receive a greater share of the snaps throughout the year in his new home. As we have seen in past seasons in Green Bay, he is better when he is playing in a limited role, as he has shown to be easily fatigued/worn down. His value is probably at its peak right now. Though he will likely stay productive throughout the year, do not expect him to keep pace with his IDP scoring totals through the first 3 weeks.
Jamie Collins, LB, New England
Jamie Collins is likely one of the top 2 IDP’s in your league right now, but he’s not even listed as a starter opn his team. With Donta Hightower out, he will likely be upgraded into a starter’s role ( and even if he is not a starter he still will get a lot of snaps). The Patriots defense, however, is very strong this year, with barely any weaknesses throughout. On that team, I doubt this production he has been seeing is sustainable for a full season. Like Matthews, don’t expect his production to disappear, but his value is sky high right now, and it’s very likely it falls back down to earth sooner rather than later. Collins has been on for about 64% of the Patriots defensive snaps so far.
Cameron Wake, LB, Tenneessee
Wake’s point total is very respectable in most IDP leagues right now, but with his age and his role with the Titans, he is not likely to be a consistent producer this year. Whether listed as a defensive end, as he’s been through most of his career, or as a linebacker as he fits in the Titan’s defensive scheme, Wake is primarily a pass rusher – as evidenced by his 2.5 week 1 sacks. He should remain a boom or bust candidate throughout the season, but it’s going to be very hard to predict which weeks he is going to put up 0’s and which weeks he is going to cash in – as evidenced by his single tackle week 2 performance. In the first 2 weeks of the season he has averaged just 28% of the Titans’ snaps on defense
Key Players To Watch
Sam Hubbard / Carlos Dunlap, DEs, Cincinnati
Carlos Dunlap has taken a small step back in production this young season (though still more than respectable) while still being in on 95% of defensive snaps. Sam Hubbard is the up and coming guy who I think will eclipse Dunlap as the Bengals’ premier pass rusher, maybe not this season, but sooner or later it will happen. Hubbard put up respectable numbers last season in a reserve role level of snaps, and this season he is sitting at an 85% snap count with 2 sacks, 2 TFL’s, 4 QB hits, and a forced fumble. The Bengals as a team are not something to be excited about, but in IDP fantasy football leagues their pass rushers are gems. The true upside will be when the 2 pass rushers can create production for each other, whereas Dunlap hasn’t had a true Co-star for a couple years in Cincy.
Blake Martinez, LB, Green Bay
This one shouldn’t be a surprise to people playing in tackle-heavy scoring formats, but Blake Martinez is primed for a BIG season. With Green Bay’s pass rush finally looking good, opposing QB’s are having less time to get rid of the football, and short throws in the middle of the field will come early and often. Combine the strength of Green Bay’s new defense with Martinez’s 100% snap count on defense and this guy is set for a monster season this year. Also, in big play heavy scoring formats, Martinez’s teammates Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith are definitely guys to watch.
Benson Mayowa / Clelin Ferrell, DEs, Oakland
Mayowa is sitting at a 33% snap count, whereas Ferrell is sitting at 75%. Both have shown huge upside, though it’s not likely both will have sustained success this season. If Mayowa’s production earns him extra snaps, those snaps will likely come out of Ferrells share, and vise versa. So far Mayowa has the better production on limited snaps, but I hear the Raiders are really high on Ferrell so it’s unlikely to see him lose snap counts. Depending how the snaps end up being shared, it will directly correlate with the fantasy productions these guys will put out, because they both have a lot of talent.
Much like traditional, offensive fantasy football, championships are often won by teams that can best exploit free agency and the waiver wire, and trading can be a very effective tool in IDP formats if you can accurately predict that a couple of big games will be all a player has in them, or that a slump is bound to turn around. Paying close attention to usage and snap count is a valuable skill to acquire when playing in IDP formats, so start looking beyond the scores and the stats to get a better feel for what to expect from defensive players.
Nexecutioner is Associated Fantasy’s resident defensive fantasy anylist and Asst Commisioner of the Legion of Defense where his Insane Clowney Posse is Association powerhouse Suspension Freak’s biggest achille’s heel. Based out of Vancouver, he’s the Asst Tournament Director of AF’s Fantasy Circus and manages the BC Blitz in AF’s flagship AFFL.