Associated Fantasy

"Its fine to have ability, but the ability to find ability in others is the true test" -Lou Holtz

AFFL AFFL2023 

AFFL2023 Draft Order Released

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By League Rule, the AFFL draft order is set by inverse order of the final standings with playoff teams handled the way the NFL does. Before getting to the early picks, here’s where the 2022 Playoff Teams will be drafting next season…..

Our Champion Wranglers will be picking from the last spot, preceded by the runner-up SoCal Gold at #19. The 2 semi-final losing teams, Blitz and Raiders receive the #18 and #17 draft spots with NOLA getting the earlier spot due to a lower playoff seed (7) than BC (5). The four teams that lost in the Wild Card round receive the next four preceding spots, also ranked in inverse order of their playoff seed.

  1. San Quintin Showboats (seed #8)
  2. Ohio Federals (seed #4)
  3. Grand Strand Gunslingers (seed #3)
  4. Bicton Breakers (seed #2)
  5. New Orleans Raiders (semifinalist; seed #7)
  6. BC Blitz (semifinalist; seed #5)
  7. SoCal Gold (League Runner-Up)
  8. Italian Wranglers (League Champion)

Now that the playoff team’s are covered, let’s go back to the top of the draft…….no drumroll necessary for the 2023 number one overall pick. After finishing just one spot out of the playoffs in 2021, the Maulers have been bled by cap issues. The hemorrhaging continued through a lost season as they barely stumbled across the finish line with a 3-11 record and ready for a rebuild. Pittsburgh can start that rebuild process with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft. If they were to choose to deal the pick away, it could prove to be very valuable as this year’s draft is expected to be rich in talent due to a rumored tightening of bonus restrictions and a possible lowering of the cut cap.

  1. Pittsburgh Maulers (3-11-0)
  13. San Quintin Showboats (seed #8)
  14. Ohio Federals (seed #4)
  15. Grand Strand Gunslingers (seed #3)
  16. Bicton Breakers (seed #2)
  17. New Orleans Raiders (semifinalist; seed #7)
  18. BC Blitz (semifinalist; seed #5)
  19. SoCal Gold (League Runner-Up)
  20. Italian Wranglers (League Champion)

A pair of teams were racing Pittsburgh to the bottom all season, despite being loaded with potential talent. The potential from some big name stars on both the Wisconsin Dells Invaders and the Jefferson Panthers was never delivered, and they finished the season tied, each with a 5-9 record. Lacking a specific rule for tiebreaking in the draft order, the league rule XIII.D was used: “Order of tiebreakers for Standings Ties in determining seeding for Playoff Bracket (Division Champions, Seeds #1-#4) and for the Standings Wild Card Spots” This is the only set of tiebreakers in the rules that deals with standings ties across the whole league.

The first tiebreaker in the list is head to head record. The Invaders and Panthers played each other week 2 in Louisiana where the home team Panthers posted the highest score of the week and the highest score of their season in a 252 – 211 win over Wisconsin. that gives the tiebreaker to the Jefferson Panthers…….unfortunately, in this case winning the tiebreaker is not a good thing. By winning the tiebreaker, the Panthers finish in 18th place, ahead of the Invaders who finish in 19th place and are awarded the #2 overall pick and the 2nd spot in the draft order. Jefferson will take #3.

  1. Pittsburgh Maulers (3-11-0)
  2. Wisconsin Dells Invaders (5-11-0)
  3. Jefferson Panthers (5-11-0)
  13. San Quintin Showboats (seed #8)
  14. Ohio Federals (seed #4)
  15. Grand Strand Gunslingers (seed #3)
  16. Bicton Breakers (seed #2)
  17. New Orleans Raiders (semifinalist; seed #7)
  18. BC Blitz (semifinalist; seed #5)
  19. SoCal Gold (League Runner-Up)
  20. Italian Wranglers (League Champion)

Now, the tiebreakers start to get really interesting when you consider we have a 6-way TIE for 17th through 9th place! Hold on, the ride is going to get bumpy…..

Finishing with a 6-6-0 record were: the Minnesota Gamblers, Prince George Generals, Sleeperville Outlaws, Tampa Bay Renegades, Miami Stallions, and Guatemala City Stars, and that means tiebreakers have to be used in determining where each of them drafts from between spots 4 and 9.

The first tiebreaker, the head to head tiebreaker states: “NOTE: A tied head to head record among multiple teams (3 way tie, 4 way tie, etc) will be broken by comparing overall win percentage of all tied teams in games vs each other if all tied teams have played all other tied teams at least one time on the season’s schedule; if head to head is not able to be mathematically determined in this way, tiebreaker must progress to #2”

So, I’ve charted out their games to see if by chance, all 6 teams played each other during the course of the season. Here are the Results:

The 2023 head-to-head records of the 6 tied teams; Where teams have faced each other twice in the season, it’s denoted as 2W’s, 2L’s or “T” to denote a W-L head to head split

As you can see, some of the teams came close to facing all of the other tied teams, but the group of 6 did not play all of each other this season, so the tiebreaker progresses to #2; “Common Opponent Record”. The rule states: “A tied common opponent record among multiple teams (3 way tie, 4 way tie, etc) will be broken by comparing overall win percentage of all tied teams in games vs any teams that all tied teams have played at least one time on the season’s schedule; if common opponent tiebreak is not able to be mathematically determined in this way, tiebreaker must progress to #3”

So, let’a take a look at all of these team’s games to see if we can find at least 1 common opponent among the 6 of them….

A look at the chart above shows that none of the 6 tied teams share even one single opponent that all 6 of them played in the 2022 season. So it moves to the 3rd tiebreaker: Division Record. The Renegades’ division record was just 2-6, while the Gamblers and Generals each had a 3-5 division count. The Stars and Stallions tied, each with a 4-4 division record, but the Sleeperville Outlaws are the first to make it out of the 6 way tie with their 5-3 record against division opponents. So that means that of the 6 teams tied for 12th through 17th place, tiebreakers give the Outlaws the top spot – 12th place – and, because the standings invert, the #9 overall spot in the 2023 draft order.

  1. Pittsburgh Maulers (3-11-0)
  2. Wisconsin Dells Invaders (5-11-0)
  3. Jefferson Panthers (5-11-0)
  9. Sleeperville Outlaws
  13. San Quintin Showboats (seed #8)
  14. Ohio Federals (seed #4)
  15. Grand Strand Gunslingers (seed #3)
  16. Bicton Breakers (seed #2)
  17. New Orleans Raiders (semifinalist; seed #7)
  18. BC Blitz (semifinalist; seed #5)
  19. SoCal Gold (League Runner-Up)
  20. Italian Wranglers (League Champion)

With the Outlaws situated, we return to a now 5-way tie for 13th-17th place and we start over again with the progression of tiebreakers. removing the Outlaws from the graph, we see that in head to head play, the 5 remaining teams still did not all face each other. So it moves to the second tiebreaker, common opponent again.

Removing the Outlaws from the common opponent chart shows that there’s no single common opponent among the 5 remaining tied teams either.

So then it goes to division record again, but here we have another tie: the Stars and Stallions both have a 4-4 record. This means the 3rd tiebreaker cannot determine a leader, so the entire group of 5 moves to the 4th tiebreaker in the progression. And that 4th tiebreaker is the team’s W-L record in Away Games.

The Renegades and Generals were both 2-5 in away games and the Gamblers and Stars were both 3-4. The Miami Stallions take the tiebreaker with their 4-3 record as a visiting team. That means the Stallions finish 2022 in 13th place and receive the #8 draft spot.

  1. Pittsburgh Maulers (3-11-0)
  2. Wisconsin Dells Invaders (5-11-0)
  3. Jefferson Panthers (5-11-0)
  8. Miami Stallions (6-6-0)
  9. Sleeperville Outlaws (6-6-0)
  13. San Quintin Showboats (seed #8)
  14. Ohio Federals (seed #4)
  15. Grand Strand Gunslingers (seed #3)
  16. Bicton Breakers (seed #2)
  17. New Orleans Raiders (semifinalist; seed #7)
  18. BC Blitz (semifinalist; seed #5)
  19. SoCal Gold (League Runner-Up)
  20. Italian Wranglers (League Champion)

And then there were four. Four teams now remaining tied for 14th through 17th place, and the progression of tiebreakers starts back over again. With the group of 4, a look at the charted opponents shows that none of them played all of the others head to head and also that none of them shared a common opponent with all of the others.

With Miami removed from the equation, the Guatemala City Stars possess the best division record (4-4) and officially finish their inaugural season in 14th place and are awarded the #7 position in the 2023 Draft.

  1. Pittsburgh Maulers (3-11-0)
  2. Wisconsin Dells Invaders (5-11-0)
  3. Jefferson Panthers (5-11-0)
  7. Guatemala City Stars
  8. Miami Stallions (6-6-0)
  9. Sleeperville Outlaws (6-6-0)
  13. San Quintin Showboats (seed #8)
  14. Ohio Federals (seed #4)
  15. Grand Strand Gunslingers (seed #3)
  16. Bicton Breakers (seed #2)
  17. New Orleans Raiders (semifinalist; seed #7)
  18. BC Blitz (semifinalist; seed #5)
  19. SoCal Gold (League Runner-Up)
  20. Italian Wranglers (League Champion)

Down to 3 – the Gamblers, Generals, and Renegades – and with the Stars removed from the chart, we still lack a head to head tiebreak in the group because Tampa and Prince George didn’t face each other all season. Moving to the common opponent tiebreaker, all three have a single common opponent: the league sponsored Bandits. The Renegades have a win against them, the Generals have a loss, and the Gamblers have 2 wins. The tiebreaker calls for win percentage, so with a 1.000 win percentage, the Gamblers and Renegades tie, so it goes to the 3rd progression. The Gamblers and Generals tie that up with their 3-5 division records, so it goes to the 4th tiebreaker.

The Generals and Renegades both had 2-5 records as the visiting team, while the Gamblers’ 3-5 away record gives them a 15th place finish and the #6 spot in next year’s draft.

  1. Pittsburgh Maulers (3-11-0)
  2. Wisconsin Dells Invaders (5-11-0)
  3. Jefferson Panthers (5-11-0)
  6. Minnesota Gamblers (6-6-0)
  7. Guatemala City Stars (6-6-0)
  8. Miami Stallions (6-6-0)
  9. Sleeperville Outlaws (6-6-0)
  13. San Quintin Showboats (seed #8)
  14. Ohio Federals (seed #4)
  15. Grand Strand Gunslingers (seed #3)
  16. Bicton Breakers (seed #2)
  17. New Orleans Raiders (semifinalist; seed #7)
  18. BC Blitz (semifinalist; seed #5)
  19. SoCal Gold (League Runner-Up)
  20. Italian Wranglers (League Champion)

The Tampa bay Renegades and Prince George Generals remain, and they don’t have a head to head so it proceeds to the 2nd tiebreaker, common opponent. And they have several. The Generals have win-loss splits against the Breakers and Raiders, so 2 wins and 2 losses between the pair, and also losses against the bandits and Gamblers. That gives them a 2-4 overall record against opponents common to Tampa’s schedule. That’s a .333 win percentage. The Renegades have a loss to the Breakers and wins against the bandits, Gamblers, and Raiders, for a 3-1 common record with a .75o win percentage.

The Renegades win the tiebreaker to finish in 16th place and receive the #5 draft spot, while Prince George finishes 17th for the #4 position.

Whew, that got complicated…….and Tampa got a helluva deal with that draft spot, especially when you throw in the supplemental pick they won in the consolation bracket. It’s going to make them dangerous next season.

  1. Pittsburgh Maulers (3-11-0)
  2. Wisconsin Dells Invaders (5-11-0)
  3. Jefferson Panthers (5-11-0)
  4. Prince George Generals (6-6-0)
  5. Tampa Bay Renegades (6-6-0)
  6. Minnesota Gamblers (6-6-0)
  7. Guatemala City Stars (6-6-0)
  8. Miami Stallions (6-6-0)
  9. Sleeperville Outlaws (6-6-0)
  13. San Quintin Showboats (seed #8)
  14. Ohio Federals (seed #4)
  15. Grand Strand Gunslingers (seed #3)
  16. Bicton Breakers (seed #2)
  17. New Orleans Raiders (semifinalist; seed #7)
  18. BC Blitz (semifinalist; seed #5)
  19. SoCal Gold (League Runner-Up)
  20. Italian Wranglers (League Champion)

And we’re not quite done yet…..Moving up from the 6-6 teams to the 7-7 teams, we’ve got, guess what? Yep, another tie. At least this one’s just 3-way.

The Tracy Bulls and the Winston-Salem Express each finished 7-7-0 along with the league sponsored AFFL Bandits. On the head to head tiebreaker, the Bulls and Express both played the Bandits, but not each other, so it progresses to common opponent. There’s a single common opponent among all three of them and that’s the Grand Strand Gunslingers who beat both Tracy and Winston-Salem but lost twice to the Bandits. Winning the tiebreaker gives them the #12 draft spot for a new coach in 2023.

The Bulls and Express have no head to heads, but they have seven common opponents. Including multiple splits, tracy posted a record of just 3-6 against common opponents for a .333 win percentage while Winston-Salem managed 4-5 against the same teams for a tiebreaking .444 percentage. Winning the tiebreaker, Winston-Salem gets the later pick.

  1. Pittsburgh Maulers (3-11-0)
  2. Wisconsin Dells Invaders (5-11-0)
  3. Jefferson Panthers (5-11-0)
  4. Prince George Generals (6-6-0)
  5. Tampa Bay Renegades (6-6-0)
  6. Minnesota Gamblers (6-6-0)
  7. Guatemala City Stars (6-6-0)
  8. Miami Stallions (6-6-0)
  9. Sleeperville Outlaws (6-6-0)
  10. Tracy Bulls (7-7-0)
  11. Winston-Salem Express (7-7-0)
  12. Bandits (7-7-0)
  13. San Quintin Showboats (seed #8)
  14. Ohio Federals (seed #4)
  15. Grand Strand Gunslingers (seed #3)
  16. Bicton Breakers (seed #2)
  17. New Orleans Raiders (semifinalist; seed #7)
  18. BC Blitz (semifinalist; seed #5)
  19. SoCal Gold (League Runner-Up)
  20. Italian Wranglers (League Champion)