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AFFL2022 Week 8 Recap: Winston-Salem Enters Post Season Express Lane

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Week 8 Highlight Game

San Quintin Showboats at Winston-Salem Express  186 – 230

The Showboats just didn’t have enough firepower in this one, their 186 points being their lowest score since week 3.  San Quintin continues to get unexpected production from signal caller Marcus Mariota, who’s 28 points in this one puts him onto the league’s top 10 QB list on the season, and their defense’s 96 points were largely made possible by safety Chauncy Gardner-Johnson’s show stopping 40 points.  With the Halas Division devolving into a circular firing squad, and with a 3-2 division record, this is luckily a loss San Quintin could afford to swallow, while  Winston-Salem’s early season losses are now just a memory as they notch their 4th win in a row with an exciting 218 point per game average over that span.  Their offense continues to play like a runaway train, posting 146 points in week 8 for a 125 point per game clip of offensive scoring over those same 4 games.  The loss of rookie Breece Hall and Ekeler’s bye week certainly didn’t slow their run game down with Travis Etienne putting up 46 points, and the Express may very well be building a star by standing behind Tagalong Tagovaila who posted 45 in this one.  

Around the League

We passed the halfway point on the season a week ago and that already feels like it was a long time ago as week 8 is now in the books.  6 weeks of regular season left to go in the AFFL, and technically speaking, anything can happen………I once went 1-7, but then finished 7-7, made it into the playoffs as the last seed, and won the championship…biggest pot I ever won in ff, actually, almost $900………..but I digress….technically speaking, anything can happen, but it seems the wheat is separating from the chaff. I see 4 tiers of teams…….here’s how I’d rank their odds of making the playoffs as of right now.

 Tier 1: The Heavyweights

#1 Italian Wranglers

League #1 / ESPN #1 / AP #1

The Wranglers are a scoring juggernaut.  They’ve failed to reach 200 points only once all season and have scored 230 points or more 3 times.  They’re #3 in the league in offensive scoring and #2 in defensive scoring, and are easily the most well balanced unit in the league.  What makes their league leading scoring so impressive is that they’re doing it without any huge studs; they have no players in the top 10 and only 2 in the top 25.  Their highest scoring player is Geno Smith at #14.  They score in buckets weekly, usually with multiple players on either side of the line contributing 25 or more, and it’s rarely the same players leading the scoring; it’s almost as if any time 2 or 3 of their players have a slow day, 4 or 5 others step up with a big one…..A.J. Brown gave them 50 this week, but only 17, 5, and 18 in his previous 3 starts; Hopkins  gave them 46 this week in only his second start after starting the season on IR.  On defense, Roquan Smith scored just 9 points this week while the offense shined, but last week led the defense with 33 on a day when the Wrangler offense was sluggish.  Week after week, it’s the same story with different players stepping up and keeping Italy’s scoring on a record breaking trajectory.  They have a deep bench, and are hands down, the team to beat in the AFFL.

#2 B.C. Blitz

League #2 / ESPN #2 / AP #2

And this is the only team in the league to have beaten them.  Just about everything you can say about the Wranglers’ performance this season, you could also say about the Blitz.  B.C. is just a half step behind Italy in almost all regards, and are actually in a slightly better financial position. They only trail Italy by 50 points on the season, but they haven’t had nearly as consistently dominant of a run, with 2 monster games – 291 points in week 5 and 269 this week – most of the rest of their scores hover just below 200 points.  Still, they remain #2 in offensive scoring and #6 in defensive scoring (falling from #4 this week).  The Blitz defense has traditionally been their strong suit, but their offensive unit is on a roll of late.  They posted 159 offensive points against the Raiders this week, with League MVP candidate Jalen Hurts putting up 31 points, and with Christian McCaffery’s trade to San Francisco, they may be even more dangerous; he scored 52 points in this one.  

What makes things the most interesting about #1 and #2, of course, is that the Blitz and Wranglers share the same division; one of these teams will likely secure the #1 seed, but the best the other will be able to get is #5.  Italy has a 1 game lead and they’ve split their head to head.  The next tiebreaker is division record where Italy is 5-1 and B.C. is 3-2.

#3 Winston-Salem Express

League #3 / ESPN #4 / AP #7

I’ve got the Express just sliding into the top tier after their 230 point Highlight Game victory this week, largely because of their scoring trend and their division situation.  They are in a comfortable position with a 2 game lead on the Generals for the Landry Division title, but Bicton is now just 1 game back and looking hot.  Those teams have already faced each other and split 1-1, so the next tiebreaker would be division record.  The Express have the edge there with a 5-1 count to Bicton’s 3-2, and their only remaining division games are against the Raiders and Invaders.  They also get a run at the Bandits, but must play the Blitz in week 12 and the Wranglers in 13 before they make it out of the season. If they manage to survive at least 1 of those 2 games, they’ll have a lock on at least the #2 seed ( it would also be a tiebreaking win giving them a path to #1).

Tier 2: The Contenders

#4 SoCal Gold

League #6 / ESPN #5 / AP #4

The Gold are actually a better lock for the playoffs right now than division rival Sleeperville, considering the Points Wild Card and SoCal’s spot as #3 in the league in total scoring.  Their 4-4 record is rough, considering they’ve lost 3 of them by 40 points or less, like this week to Ohio.  They’re balanced – #6 in the league on offense, #3 on defense – and they showed the balance today with their 81/74 statline in another of those almost close losses.  They’re scoring floor so far this season is 175, and they’ve hit 200 or more 4 times.,  The team that scored 278 points in the season opener is still there under the hood and this team can be explosive on any given week.  The Outlaws are ahead of them right now, but the Gold can catch up and the week 14 face off is going to be very, very big if Sleeperville doesn’t disintegrate on the way.

#5 Tampa Bay Renegades

League #8 / ESPN #8 / AP #6

Being in the Halas Division this year looks like being in a blindfolded bar fight.  Everyone’s at .500 and division records are all within a game of each other, so tiebreakers could send this thing any way by season’s end.  But if you put a gun to my head and told me to put my money on one of them right now it would be the Renegades.  They’ve had 2 low scoring outings in a row, but they’ve been managing bye weeks, and the 225 per game scoring rate they posted for 4 weeks (3-6) is an accurate picture of them at full strength.  Their roster has players with the proverbial both talent (Josh Allen, Lavonte David) and opportunity (Amari Cooper, Micah Parsons), and if any team in the division can separate from the pack I would have to bet on Tampa.

If the Outlaws are going to make a move, QB Lamar Jackson will have to put both their offense AND defense on his shoulders

#6 San Quintin Showboats

League #10 / ESPN #11 / AP #9

And as soon as I laid my money down I would’ve wished I had laid it on San Quintin – like when you order meatloaf at a diner and your buddy orders an omelet and you immediately wish you had ordered breakfast.  The Renegades edge the Showboats right now based on personnel and bench talent, but again, tiebreakers will be key in this division, and San Quintin owns them for now.  At #8 in the league in scoring, the Showboats are just 24 points behind the Renegades and have just as many 200 point games (3).  They’re 5th in the league on defense but rank 12th in offensive scoring and are wisely on the market for an offensive playmaker.  If they could land one before the trade deadline, they’d move up, maybe even into the top tier

#7 Sleeperville Outlaws

League #5 / ESPN #6 / AP #11

The Outlaws slide into Tier 2 based more on situation than horsepower, with the inside track to secure the Paul Brown Division.  They have a one game lead AND a head to head victory over their most serious competitor, SoCal.  They also have a better division record with a 4-2 count.  They salvaged a 3 game slide with their 207 point win over Miami.  Despite a 3 week points drought, they remain the #1 offense in the league and they looked like it in this game with 140 offensive points led by Tyreek Hill’s 46 points and Lamar Jackson’s 31 points with 18 or more at every position – Jackson is currently tied for #1 in the league in scoring.  Defensively, however, Sleeperville ranks last in the league, averaging just 57 defensive points per game, and because of it, they rank just 17th in the league in total scoring. That’s a big hole to plug and they’ll have trouble remaining dominant week to week while basically just fielding an offense.

#8* Bicton Breakers

League #4 / ESPN #7 / AP #3

I asterisked Bicton’s #8 ranking because it would be more accurate to rank them: “#8 and climbing like a rocket”. Derrick Henry scored 65 points for the Breakers at home this week against Pittsburgh; Tannehill scored 0 for them.  The Breaker offense still totaled 118 points despite their QB’s goose egg, and that offense scored 140 last week and 95 the week before.  Bicton has a score line this season of 211, 121, 196, 153, 147, 243, 242, and 222 being good enough for #5 in the league in scoring.  That puts them in the same boat as SoCal with the inside line on a points wild card spot, and they also have a 5-3 record behind Winston-Salem in a soft division.  They need to keep their scoring clip up for at least one more week, facing Tampa in week 9, and they also still have Sleeperville and Prince George on the schedule. 

Tier 3: The Longshots

#9 Ohio Federals

League #7 / ESPN #3 / AP #5

Like SoCal, the Federals’ 4-4 record is misleading as it includes a 2 point loss to Pittsburgh and an 8 point loss to Tracy, but it also includes two wins by less than 40 as well, including this week’s 213-176 victory over the Gold.  Ohio posted 100 points of offense in this one, without their starting QB Justin Herbert.  Led by Tony Pollard’s 47 points and Rondale Moore’s 30, it was only their second 100 point offensive outing of the season, where the Federals rank 11th in the league.  On defense, Ohio ranks 5th in the league.  The Federals are sort of straddling the line for me right now between the 2nd and 3rd tiers; they’re on the short end of the tiebreaker stick right now in the Lombardi Division, but that could change.  Looking down their schedule they still have potential trap games against Grand Strand, Sleeperville, and Guatemala and have to finish the season against Tampa and San Quintin – those games in weeks 13 and 14 will determine the Federals’ season.

#10 Tracy Bulls

League #9 / ESPN #13 / AP #10

Lombardi Division again.  Ranking that group is like trying to see which yard stick is longer.  The Bulls were the dark horse of last year’s playoff season, with a late season push that carried them all the way to the runners-up spot, and they have the potential for the same this year.  Their 200 point win this week against Guatemala evens their record with the rest of the division and gives them their 3rd 200 point outing of the season.  With the league’s best receiver tandem, Cooper Kupp and Steffon Diggs, and a now healthy Dak Prescott at quarterback, the Bulls hold the league’s 5th best scoring offensive unit right now.  BUT, they still must face Tampa and Bicton, and they’ve been swept by both Ohio and San Quintin so the tiebreakers are not going to be their friend.

#11 Prince George Generals

League #11 / ESPN #4 / AP #8

After starting the season looking like one of this season’s powerhouse teams, Prince George scored 638 points through their first 3 weeks ((211 points per game) but have scored at a clip of just 166 per game (831) since then.  They lost to the league sponsored Bandits, 201-187 this week despite posting 110 points on defense.  It was their fifth 100+ point day on defense and they are the leagues #1 scoring defensive unit.  Their defense is so good, it’s kept them in games when their offense didn’t show up – like in this week when they posted just 42 points from that side of the line.  They are #20 in the league in offensive scoring and that stat could be what keeps them out of the post season.

#12 New Orleans Raiders

League #9 / ESPN #15 / AP #12

The 2-6 New Orleans Raiders appear in this tier only for their chances at a points wild card.  The Raiders picked up their 5th loss of the season in the 191-269 week 8 tilt against the Blitz, but it was their 3rd loss while scoring 191 points or more, and they’ve managed to work themselves into the #7 spot in total scoring.  They are 15th in the league on offense but are 7th on defense and 3rd on special teams where they’ve been solid all season.  Their offense has potential on paper, and if they can continue to score at this clip, will have the inside track on a points wild card berth depending on what SoCal and the Breakers can do in the standings through the rest of their year.

#13 Miami Stallions

League # / ESPN #9 / AP #13

Rounding out a baker’s dozen, the Stallions finish the tier of longshots. They trail New Orleans by just 50 points on the season putting them in the running for the same route to the post season. Miami trails New Orleans in both offensive and defensive rankings and they’ve had lower floor games than the Raiders, but their offense, led by QB Joe Burrow, seems to be ascending. They missed the playoffs last season as the ‘9th seed’ based on standings tiebreakers, this season it will come down to points

Tier 4: The Spoilers

There’s 6 weeks left to go and anything can happen, but the rest of the teams are probably already thinking about moves for next year.  All of these other teams though, are still likely to play prominent roles in the playoff picture.  The Invaders scored 249 points out of nowhere in week 8, with D’onta Foreman and Alvin Kamara combing for 98 points…….Jefferson scored 94 points of offense in their 190 point victory over Minnesota…..these examples show that any of the remaining teams are capable of posting scores that will unexpectedly effect the seedings and playoff race.

In the Rankings this week:

  • B.C. climbed to #2 in total scoring and SoCal dropped to #3
    • Bicton climbed to #4 and Tampa dropped to #6
    • B.C. has overtaken San Quintin for #5 on the all time list
  • Italy and Winston-Salem swap at #3 and #4 in offensive scoring
    • Sleeperville and Tracy move up from #3 and #4 to #2 and #3 in all time offensive scoring while Pittsburgh tumbles from #2 to #4
  • B.C. Blitz drops from #4 to #6 in defensive scoring while Ohio and San Quintin climb to #4 and #5; Sleeperville drops from #19 to 320
    • Ohio overtakes Sleeperville for #9 on the all time list
  • New Orleans and Guatemala move up from #4 and #5 to #2 and #3 on the Special Teams list

If the Playoffs started in Week 9, seeding WOULD be:

  1. Italian Wranglers (Lombardi DC)
  2. Winston-Salem Express (Landry DC)
  3. Sleeperville Outlaws (Brown DC)
  4. San Quintin Showboats (Halas DC)
  5. B.C. Blitz (Standings WC #1)
  6. SoCal Gold (Points WC #1)
  7. Bicton Breakers (Standings WC #2)
  8. Ohio Federals (Points WC #2)