AFFL2022 Week 14 Highlight Game: All Down To This

The AFFL Highlight Game for the week 14 season finale is a regular season match-up that works out to be a Halas Division Championship game between the division lead San Quintin Showboats (8-5-0) and the defending League Champion Ohio Federals (7-6-0) who own the tiebreaker for the title.  Gee, I feel like I’ve been here before……..

A long, long time ago, in a galaxy known as Week 1 of this season, when everyone was undefeated and had visions of a trophy running through their head, the Ohio Federals were chosen to host the season’s very first weekly Highlight Game – a match against the divisional and geographic rival Pittsburgh Maulers who were projected to be a powerhouse franchise this season. Pittsburgh lost on a complicated tiebreaker in 2021 to Ohio for the 2nd Standings Wild Card spot, and, coincidentally, the tiebreaker rules were updated in the offseason to streamline that same tiebreaker.

In the Week 1 Highlight Game Preview, I wrote: “Last year nothing but the Federals and a complicated three-way tiebreaker stood between the Maulers and a playoff run. Ohio meanwhile, marched all the way into the Championship on the strength of that tiebreaker. That still tastes more bitter than a month old cheesesteak to these Pittsburgh Maulers as they march into Cleveland Municipal Stadium with blood in their eyes for the 2022 season opener. For the Federals, one of the most active teams this past offseason, the road to a repeat starts tonight.”

Ohio lost that game 190 – 192, and had the outcome been different, the week 14 landscape could be much different as well. Since that time, the Maulers have disintegrated, and after a hot and cold early season, Ohio has rallied, scoring 200 points or more in 6 of the last 7 games, and on the season finale they find themselves back in a place where a win will get them into the playoffs on tiebreakers just like last season.

The San Quintin Showboats lead the division and own tiebreakers against everyone but the Federals, who beat them 172 – 128 in week 2, the only time these teams have ever met.  Like the Federals, San Quintin had a rough start this season but have gotten hot and are now riding a 4 game win streak. The Showboats were featured in the week 8 Highlight Game vs the Winston-Salem Express. In that preview, I wrote “The Halas Division’s Cinderella Showboats have a chance to really lock in control of the group if they can take care of business this week, particularly with Tampa’s expected loss to the Wranglers.  Their #8 rank in total scoring is misleading, as they averaged just 139 points per game through week 3, but have been on a tear, scoring 191 in week 4 and 200 plus every week since for a 215 per game scoring average.”

San Quintin lost their Highlight Game as well, 230 – 186, but after that loss, I still gave them the 6th best odds in the league of making the playoffs, writing “And as soon as I laid my money down (on Tampa at #5) I would’ve wished I had laid it on San Quintin – like when you order meatloaf at a diner and your buddy orders an omelet and you immediately wish you had ordered breakfast.  The Renegades edge the Showboats right now based on personnel and bench talent, but again, tiebreakers will be key in this division, and San Quintin owns them for now.”

Owns those tiebreakers FOR NOW being the key.  Here’s how it plays out: if San Quintin wins, they advance to a 9-5 finish and win the Halas Division Championship.  But, if Ohio wins, both teams finish 8-6 and Ohio will have a two game head to head sweep over the Showboats to win the Championship on tiebreakers. Fourteen weeks of the Halas Division circular firing squad comes down to this.

These teams are evenly matched on paper, with Ohio ranking just a little better in most categories. They’re healthy and at mostly full strength going into this one with the only absence being their fourth starter on the defensive depth chart, Mykal Walker on bye week, so one of the keys in this game for the Federals will be to see replacement Denzel Perryman step up. He’s scored 6, 20, 13, and 15 when he’s been called upon to fill in this year. The Showboats’ defense is at full strength, but their superior special teams unit and their offense is riddled with bye week issues and injury question marks. for them to have a chance in this one, one of the keys will be for lead back Josh Jacobs to play Thursday night and to put the team on his shoulders and have a career night. Another big wild card in this game is DeShaun Watson. After paying out $40 million dollars to the contract QB, San Quintin saw a return of just 3 points in his long awaited debut. This game could hinge on his production and its unknown ceiling, and that uncertainty is likely why Vegas is being cautious and installing the Federals as 25 point favorites.

There are other games of significance this week, in fact, every game except for the Jefferson-Pittsburgh game has the potential to affect the playoffs.  The Brown Division will depend on the outcome of the games involving SoCal, Grand Strand, and the Bandits…..EVERY 7-6 team AND every 6-7 team is looking for a win, a bunch of other losses, and some tiebreaker magic…….and New Orleans, Tampa, Guatemala, Tracy, and Miami are looking to score a big bucket of points for the last Wild Card.  Let’s just say it’s gonna’ be a big week.  Good Luck.